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RESTAURANT AND FOOD
TREND FORECAST FOR
2019
AUTHORED by:
Robert Ancill
CHAIRMAN & CEO, THE NEXT IDEA
RESTAURANT CONSULTANTS
The Next Idea (TNI)
anticipates 2019 to be a
uniquely pivotal year as
the restaurant and food
terrain adjusts itself
towards an increasingly
confident, exploratory,
and discerning consumer.
It is clear to most that the impact on
our food eco-system by Earth’s
planetary changes are significant; many
factors involving farming methods,
where food is grown, the deployment
of pesticides and fertilizers, livestock
feedstuff, and so on, affect the
environmental impact of the food we
buy and eat. The significant changes in
weather patters, population, and geo-
politics is now impacting what we eat,
and this theme will transcend the
coming years.
For example; Approximately 86% of world food
consumption is generated from rice, maize, sugar,
wheat, barley, soy, palm and potato. Across the
globe diets are actually becoming increasingly
similar, both in the food types, and also the
varieties of those food types that are consumed.
This results in increasing exposure to shortages in
the event of a large scale natural disaster. For
example, food shortages in 2007/8 were caused by
a yield loss in Australia of less than 1% of global
food supply, however the net effect created spikes
in food pricing and political unrest in certain parts
of the world. As economists tried to make sense of
the problem, the one primary metric was obvious –
world population growth [Demand] vs shrunken
availability [Supply] was out of balance.
Combine the world’s macro issues at localized levels and
we begin to see shifting and emerging trends in both
food production and consumer demand.
Talking of the Consumer, what are the 2019 consumer’s
expectations? This is of course deeply complex and
fluctuates by age, income and demographic, however
one theme appears to have emerged since the great
recession – consumers want a relationship not a
transaction. They covet their chosen brands that leverage
situational and behavioral data as the primary foundation
of their brand engagement. But it goes further,
consumers expect their brand experience to be seamless
across all engagement points and when it fails, which is
inevitable at some stage, recovery will be based on the
quality and speed of service and ability to address
whatever the failure may be.
When it comes to food and restaurants, consumer
expectations have never been higher, with the ability to
post their feedback on Trip Advisor, Yelp and Zomato, to
name a few, consumers have immense power over
brands to ensure they comply with their promise, and in
some cases exceed their promise. Indeed consumers have
an unprecedented ability to access or experience food
and restaurant products and share this information via all
social media platforms.
The modern 2019 consumer has a set of 6 primary values
when it comes to food; summarized as follows:
1. Health Aware
2. Transparency
3. Sustainability
4. Social Consciousness
5. Trust & Honesty
6. Technology integration
The above value structure is defining trends and demand,
accelerating disruption throughout the food chain, and
creating a new environment for food sellers and
restaurant operators to acclimate their business models.
Health Aware
Health continues to be the primary
propelling consumer value. When glancing
ahead into 2019, expect consumer health
and wellness targets to reach new levels.
Consumers are increasingly treating their
bodies like ecosystems, understanding
nutrition valuations and how different foods
affect them. They are even customizing
their diet based on DNA and Genetics. Food
is increasingly viewed as nutritional therapy
for all consumer types.
Transparency
TNI has reported on the change in Consumer
behavior since the great recession in 2008/9,
whereby demand for honesty and transparency
was fueled by perceived brand and corporate
deceitfulness. Since then, this value has
permeated throughout the food & restaurant
world with consumers requiring guarantees on
food hygiene, ethics, labelling, and sustainability
standards. Traceability from farm to fork,
through labelling and general information, is a
significant demand by the consumer, and has
forced a democratization of both nutritional
data and overall ingredient history.
Sustainability
Sustainability has become a major consumer
concern over the past twenty years, but never more
than now. After experiencing the effects of global
warming in 2018 and hearing major scientific reports
coming from the United Nations, consumers are
acutely aware of their individual impact on Planet
Earth, and what the future might look like should
they not act.
From the enhanced management of waste
reduction, through to renewable packaging in
materials and shorter food supply chains,
consumers are placing increasing demand on food
producers and restaurants to act in the interest of
the environment.
Social Consciousness
Consumers now care; it’s that simple.
Consumers want to know what supermarkets
are doing with their wasted food, how each
restaurant supports the community they serve,
and how their dollar will be used to support
worthwhile causes. This especially applies to
the millennial population who demand socially
aware food and restaurant brands, or they shop
and eat elsewhere.
Trust & Honesty
Consumers are increasingly wary of corporate
America, whom they believe have no incentive to
act in the consumer’s best interest. Consumers are
increasingly fact checking the corporations they
choose to do business with. Equally, consumers’
brand loyalty is switching from household names to
local and small businesses whom they can better
relate to.
Honesty is not just about businesses being truthful,
it’s a devotion to genuineness that the consumer
seeks: Brands that talk about their roots, and
demonstrate
I don’t want
perfect, I
want Honest
Technology Integration
Technology within food and food service is not new and the
app-centric global society is being serviced well by
technology availability. However, technology is becoming
increasingly sophisticated and advanced. Artificial
Intelligence is being introduced throughout food service and
provides predictive technology for restaurant food ordering.
Technology runs deep into all forms of food production given
the vulnerabilities in farming due to climate change. New
blockchain technologies will allow farming to move into
warehouses and even underground, through the availability
of open source hardware and software platforms for sensor
controlled hydroponic and aeroponic agricultural systems.
Consumers are welcoming these technologies and
availability as it speaks to their interest in sustainability, and
in many cases provides something to talk about on social
media.
Consumer Happiness Scale 2019
Transparancy
#information
Honesty
Local – Global
Simplicity
Convenience
Innovation
Sustainability
Instagram
😀 🤔 ☹️
Price to Value
#quality
Trust in Advertising
Longevity
Experimentation
Green matters
Slow anything
#lies
Opaque
Apathy
Waste
Green
The market is changing at unprecedented velocity,
this is demonstrated by the multiple emerging
trends within all markets. Veganism,
*Entomophagy, Lab grown meat, 3d food printing,
Food being Medicine, CBD and THC infused
products, Nut and grain-based milks, Drone and
self- driving car delivery, street food innovation,
and the regeneration of food waste, represent the
major trends that will prevail through 2019 and
after. In the main, these trends will circle around a
major theme in food trends over the past 20 years;
Health!
*Entomophagy is the consumption of insects.
Trend changes in the Food and
Restaurant market
Indeed, it is the consumer that will be 2019’s
champion for change as, through their combined
buying and social media sovereignty, the
consumer’s voice will be more powerful than ever.
So, this elusive consumer, what do they actually
want? Well, naturally not all consumers are made
the same; age, ethnicity, income, and overall
demographics all share their role in segmentation.
With that said, today’s consumers possess one
value that they increasingly collectively care about,
and that is their health. While it may seem obvious,
consumer health is one of the primary drivers in
emerging and materialized food trends, and it is
igniting a full array of sub-trends that form 2019’s
food and restaurant trend roadmap.
The Consumer
Health Leads Food
Decisions
Of course, healthy eating is not a new trend, but the
rapidity at which consumer eating habits have shifted
towards healthier eating represents the difference. Both at
home and in restaurants, consumer food choice has
migrated with a greater emphasis on ‘clean’ and ‘healthy’
dishes and is metamorphizing the eating out landscape at
an extraordinary rate.
Historically, ‘healthy eating’ was limited in options and
generally considered a less than favorable culinary
experience. However today, consumers have a far more
informed opinion and choice when it comes to ‘healthy
food’ options. This is generally due to the swath of cooking
channels along with the exponential increase in digital and
social media engagement, and creative chefs who have
made health food look enticing and fun.
Health Leads Food
Decisions
Putting this into perspective, the global health and
wellness food market was valued at 707.12 billion U.S.
dollars in 2016 and projected to increase up to 811.82
trillion U.S. dollars by 2021. Organic food is another
example: The U.S. organic food market size is expected to
reach 70.4 billion U.S. dollars by 2025 as a result of
increasing demand from consumers.
Organic food is another example: The U.S. organic food
market size is expected to reach USD 70.4 billion by 2025
as a result of increasing demand from consumers.
Combined with intensified interest in global flavors,
superfood ingredients, and Instagram-ready dishes, retail
food ranges and restaurant menus will increase focus on
dietary needs and concerns while elevating innovation
using foods from the past.
PRIMARY 2019 FOOD TREND
THEMES
As we head into 2019, there are eight primary
themes when establishing 2019’s food trends:
Veganism
Food as Medicine
Entomophagy
CBD and THC infused products
Milk is not Milk
Food delivery
Regeneration of food waste
Technology
These themes relate to all future food trends,
in some cases at multiple levels, and as such
are the foundation to current and future
trends.
2019 Food and
Restaurant
Trends
Trend Network
Plant-based everything Artisanal
Medicinal
Healthy
Technology
Back to Basics
yet always
Connected! Sustainable
Vegan is Growing!
Not even ten years ago, vegan cuisine was generally
considered fodder for hippies, yet in 2019 it is undoubtedly
the prevailing overall culinary trend in the US.
The Vegan landscape now includes established restaurant
brands; Veggie Grill, Amy’s, Native Foods, Southern
California-based Plant Power, and recently re-named Viva
Vegan, to name a few. All have all demonstrated the power
of this trend and are experiencing above average market
growth.
However, the carnivore brands are fast jumping on the
bandwagon; Carl’s Jr. announced it was launching a burger
made with a Beyond Meat [vegan] quarter-pound patty.
White Castle now sells its plant based Impossible Sliders in
all of its 377 locations, Del Taco has expanded its Beyond
Taco trial to over 20 of its locations, and McDonald’s has
been introducing a Vegan burger in its international markets
and is eyeing the US market to launch in 2019.
Vegan is Growing!
This trend has been fueled by consumers eating
less red meat combined with the discernible
health benefits and product innovation. What is
interesting is that there is not necessarily a
significantly elevated vegan population, instead
there is a new consumer breed widely known as
a flexitarian.
The label ‘flexitarian’ has been applied to the
consumer group who purposefully interchanges
between eating meat and vegan foods.
In order to be familiar; vegan restaurant and food
brands are taking traditionally meat-based
products, such as burgers, pizza, and tacos, and
converting them into a plant-based alternative.
Vegan is Growing!
Take *Viva Vegan’s menu for
example. They offer a Famous Works
Burger, a blend of 27 plant-based
ingredients, and spaghetti and
meatballs, which includes gluten
and soy free pasta with bean and
grain-based meatballs with a plant-
based sauce.
Vegan Statistics
In the USA there has been a 600% increase in people claiming to be
vegans in the last three years. In 2014, 1% of U.S. consumers
professed to be vegan in 2014 whereas in 2017, that number rose to
6%.
Source: Global Data
Google Trends details worldwide increase in the interest in
veganism from 2004 to 2018. Seven percent or about 3.5 million
people now identify as vegan in Great Britain. The U.S. and U.K.
round out the top 2 vegan countries by percentage, India takes the
first spot with veganism encompassing 27% of the population.
Google Search reports that veganism is now experiencing virtually 3
times more interest than vegetarian and gluten free searches.
A study by Oxford Martin School, (part of Oxford University), stated:
‘A global switch to diets that rely less on meat and more on fruit and
vegetables could save up to 8 million lives by 2050, reduce
greenhouse gas emissions by two thirds, and lead to healthcare-
related savings and avoided climate damages of $1.5 trillion (US)’.
Technomic reports that 50% of operators are embracing plant-based
eating trends when developing new menu items.
The Future of
Of course, given TNI is a Los Angeles based agency, it would
be amiss if we didn’t discuss our Hollywood friends – Ariana
Grande, Zac Efron, Gisele, Ellie Goulding, Natalie Portman,
Daryl Hannah, Woody Harrelson, and mega star, Beyonce, are
all self-declared Vegans.
The Future...
Veganism will grow exponentially. For example, the *global
meat substitutes market is expected to generate in excess of
$5bn in revenue, representing compound annual growth
(CAG) rate of 8.4% between 2015-2020. ** Vegan Cheese has
forecasted global sales of around $4bn by 2024, a CAG of
7.6% from 2016 to 2024.
Sources *Allied Market Research and **Bharat Book.
Expect vegetable versions of kung pao chicken, charcuterie,
cured heirloom carrots, sushi, tacos, and even steak.
Food As Medicine
We are what we eat – and consumers now know
this! The Food as Medicine philosophy aims to
manage or even cure chronic illness by changing
what people consume. Nielsen reported in 2018
that 39% of American households have
someone who suffers from a particular ailment.
The US aging population is increasing, chronic
diseases will only grow in the coming years.
However, rather than relying 100% on
prescription and over-the-counter medicines, a
growing base is looking at natural remedies that
include very precise culinary diets and nutrition
plans.
Food As Medicine
The food as medicine trend derives from consumers
taking greater personal responsibility for their own health
and wellness. Food production and food service industries
have responded favorably by providing healthy and
sustainable food that has made the healthier food choice
the easiest one. For example, Hormel and Nestle have
both announced their intent to develop nutritional
products that will help their customers manage any
personal ailments. AREEA, a biotechnology business, has
produced a ready to drink beverage containing an enzyme
that detoxes the body from daily pollution effects. In
January 2019, Phood Farmacy, a brand committed to food
as medicine launches its first virtual kitchen in North
Hollywood, California. Phood Farmacy offers a spectrum
of exciting yet nutritionally infused meals in addition to
specific medical condition-based meal plans. All meals are
made from clean ingredients combined with
comprehensive nutritional planning.
Food As Medicine
“Naturally Functional” is a new buzzword behind the success of
many foods now known as “Super Foods” such as blueberries,
pomegranate, chia seeds and goji berries, to name a few. This
endorses consumers search for foods and ingredients that they
perceive as naturally healthy and provide essential health benefits.
Food education and mindfulness have become growth trends for
2019, mainly through the accessibility of information, but also
through food hubs and online communities such as Food + Tech
connect, and the Food Tank. Thus, consumers now understand the
nutritional value of natural food ingredients and how each
ingredient reacts with themselves specifically; consequently, they
are seeking out specific ingredients to assist in their personal
wellness and being.
The concept of Food as Medicine will permeate throughout the
industry as consumers, therapists, and doctors increasingly
appreciate the relationship between food intake and wellness.
We should expect to see prescriptions of specific diets of foods and
recipes that enhance the healing process, elevate immunity, and
address specific medical conditions with patients.
Food As Medicine
Examples of high value foods include:
Kelp: Rich in calcium, magnesium, potassium, and
iodine – helps keep thyroid levels balanced
Shiitake mushrooms: Contains lentinan which may
fight cancer and slow tumor growth
Moringa: Possesses powerful anti-inflammatory,
antioxidant, and tissue-protective properties
Rooibos tea: Contains antioxidants that can protect
against cancer, heart disease and stroke
Garlic: Rich in vitamin C, B6 and manganese,
supports the heart and reduces blood pressure
Ginger: Anti-inflammatory and antioxidant
properties
Basil: Contains eugenol, keeps intestines safe
Food As Medicine
Many “medicinal” foods such as apple
cider vinegar, kefir, and turmeric are now
mainstream. This trend is young; many
more foods will reach the forefront as
consumers seek out natural remedies for
conditions like inflammation, fatigue,
digestive issues, joint pain, depression and
the multitude of other medical conditions
that can be supported by a specific mix of
foods and natural supplements.
Entomophagy, consumption of insects
As the planet journeys towards a population of 9 billion people, the
food industry is driven to unearth new and sustainable food sources.
Insects represent a relatively untapped food-type in the west yet are
established in diets or snack culture in other parts of the world. For
example, in parts of central Africa, around 50% of protein is derived
from insects. During the springtime in Ghana, when food is scarce,
Ghanaians rely on termites as their main source of protein. Thailand’s
popular Jing Leed is deep-fried crickets with a soy based dipping sauce.
Thais also love snacking on grasshoppers, crickets and woodworms. In
Mexico, chicatanas, or pan-roasted ants with lime, are as mainstream as
tacos. Edible insects contain high quality protein, amino acids and
vitamins, and even mass consumption has a small impact
environmentally.
Companies like Entocube provide technology to farm insects and
process them as an ingredient to the food industry and Bugsolutley
produces cricket-based pasta. Presently, crickets are the most common
insect type being used in the US. Mainly for the production of cricket
flour and protein products. However other insect types are also
expected to become available, including caterpillars, different beetle
species, and larvae. Even termites are under experimentation.
Entomophagy, consumption of insects
In the US, Meat Maniac, a Texas based
company, provides a broad range of insect
based snacks, such as: hot Mealworms,
Emperor Scorpions and Earthworm Jerky. The
entomophagy trend is still in its infancy in the
west, however it will gain traction and expect
to see this sector exceed revenues of $1bn by
2025.
TBC and THC infused Products
Cannabis is still illegal at the federal level, and due to
its classification as a Schedule 1 drug the amount of
research that can be conducted in this sector is
limited. However, as cannabis is legalized state by
state, the overall industry continues to grow at a
profligate rate. This has resulted in the augmentation
of cannabis-based edibles, oils, and beverages.
Given the presently unclear federal position on the
future legalization of Cannabis, national statistics are
unclear, nevertheless we only have to look at the
market and product availability to identify the
escalating trends in cannabis and cannabis infused
products. There is now a swath of CBD infused
confectionary, with brands like Camino and Dr Norm.
Mixed CBD and THC infused products include:
brownies (of course!), mints, cookies, cakes and
chocolate bars.
TBC and THC infused Products
The cannabis infused beverage sector is also
anticipated to grow in 2019. Yet beverage market
share is predicted to be less impressive until 2020
or 2021. By 2022 this market is estimated to be a
$600 million business as larger manufactures
tweak and launch their products.
2019 will also experience a new wave of cannabis
cafes and lounges in various states. Notably in
2018, West Hollywood approved a range of
cannabis cafes and consumption lounges to open
in 2019. The City spent 7 months screening over
300 applicants for highly-coveted cannabis
licenses, setting a new bar in cannabis recreation
and starting a new wave in cannabis tourism.
In short, Cannabis growth will go higher and higher
in 2019!
Chroma – a winner of the West Hollywood Cannabis lounge license
The Changing Face of Dairy
Plant-based milk alternatives revenues have grown by
61% over the past five years, with
*15 – 25% growth expected by 2022. In fact, the
alternative milk industry is already around $2bn in
annual revenue.
*Source: CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange
Almond milk (64 percent market share), soy (13 percent
market share), and coconut (12 percent market share),
represent the leaders in the sector. However new
variations are generating considerable interest. Pecan,
quinoa, cashew, hazelnut, sunflower seed, and rice
milks are all gaining traction in this young but high
growth market. In addition, there are non-dairy milks
made from hemp, peas, bananas, cassava, oats and
potatoes, with others under development also.
The Changing Face of Dairy
The fuel behind this trend is again Health, with *1 in 5
Americans citing health reasons to explain their switch from
regular to plant-based milk. Interestingly, Vegans and
Vegetarians account for only 15% of this market, with the
primary consumer being flexitarians or **lessitarians.
*Source: Mintel ** Lessitarian is a consumer who has cut back on their consumption of animal-based
foods and beverages
Its not just the milk industry that is transforming; yogurt
made with almonds, coconut and cashews have become
prominent in health food and mainstream grocery stores.
Brands such as The Coconut Cult, Ripple and Coco Rico are all
significant brands in this arena.
Other traditionally dairy products such as ice cream and
cheese, have non – dairy alternatives, chauffeuring the
overall Dairy Alternative Market to around *$35bn by 2024.
*Grand View Research
Food delivery speeds forward
The recent convergence between food, technology and
portability has been dramatic and literally changed the
restaurant industry topography. In 2019, the average revenue
per user (ARPU) in the restaurant-to-consumer delivery
segment is estimated at *$232.05, with a market volume of
*$16.16bn.
*Statistica
Convenience was always thought to be the driver behind the
food delivery phenomenon, however there are multiple reasons
for this monumental market shift including: variety, saves time,
ability to order at any time, and visibility of options, all of which
are significant. The worldwide gross revenue of US$82.7 billion
in 2018 is expected to increase to US$137.6 billion by 2023.
Since 2014, online ordering and delivery has grown 300% faster
than dine-in-traffic. In fact, most casual dining and fast casual
brands have seen a decline in their dine-in numbers as groups
like Grub Hub, Postmates, Uber Eats, and Doordash, basically
eat into this market and change consumer eating out behavior.
Food delivery speeds forward
Generational consumer habits have helped fuel the delivery
trend, however while 37% of online food delivery consumers
are between 25 to 34 years of age, 26% are between 35 to 44
and 11% are 45 to 54. Therefore, demand is spreading across all
age groups. Higher income consumers are the largest user
group representing 43.1% of the market vs 25.9% for lower
income buyers.
The food delivery sector will grow through consumer demand.
However, advances in delivery technology will be a major
growth factor. For Example, drone delivery and driverless
delivery vehicles are in test by several delivery operators, and
even the convenience of Alexa will have an impact: a leading c-
store brand, Sheetz, announced that its “made to order foods”
from all 564 stores can be ordered on Alexa.
This sector will ultimately change the operational structure of a
restaurant, and TNI advises restaurants to get on board or be
left behind.
Food delivery – The facts!
Food waste has become a hot topic in
restaurants and viewed as a critical economic
and social concern in 2019 by many consumers.
Indeed, whereas food waste was historically a
profitability issue, it has now become a matter
of principal.
Chipotle, for example, announced its goal to
divert 50% of its restaurant’s waste from
landfills by 2020, through a program of
operational improvements, leftover food
donations, and general food sustainability
training.
Regeneration of Food Waste
Regeneration of Food Waste
However, it is the local level that is leading the
way. Independent restaurants are using left over
food waste for compost, and innovation is
abound: Silo restaurant converts its whey from
cheese-making into a sauce for potatoes and
turns leftover bread crusts into miso soup, Phood
Farmacy uses all scraps from vegetable
preparation for vegetable stock and its discarded
chilli seeds into chili powder. Viva Vegan plans to
dehydrate and convert its discarded juice pulp
into crackers and energy bars.
Restaurants are increasingly eco-conscious in
order to engage customers, save money and
comply with tightening diversion regulations.
Composting, converting waste into ingredients,
donating leftovers, and swapping single-use
items for reusable ones are all signals that food
waste no longer needs to be wasted.
Sustainability
While it is hard to find a news outlet today that
doesn’t discuss Sustainability, this restaurant
trend is still in its infancy. At a general level,
restaurants today, (especially brands), are very
environmentally unfriendly through the high
consumption of power and water, packaging, and
waste output.
The World Resources Institute reported
‘approximately one-third of all food produced in
the world intended for human consumption is lost
or wasted. This inefficiency equates to a loss of
$940 billion per year and contributes to 8% of
annual global greenhouse gas emissions’
Sustainability
The National Restaurant Association’s State of Restaurant
Sustainability 2018 report, states that ‘food waste
reduction has become one of the top sustainability issues
for restaurants. About half of all restaurants track the
food waste they generate, while more than one in 10
compost their food waste, the report found’. However,
this is just the tip; some restaurants have moved from oil
fried products to air fried products thus eradicating the
need for oil and the damage used oil creates in the
environment, while others have introduced sustainable
fish programs. Packaging, a huge environmental
challenge, has seen prodigious changes in the past 5
years. The switch to Hemp, sugarcane and bamboo-
based packaging, has resulted in restaurants removing
over 47,000 kg of PET plastics from packaging life cycle
per year.
Sustainability
TNI Design, a leading restaurant design firm has
developed a program that uses hemp-based materials in
around 45% of its restaurant finish materials, and
reclaimed wood for its furniture recommendations.
Lighting is only LED, and research into capital affordable
solar power for restaurants has been underway with their
new recommended program expected to be launched in
2020. Another example is The Cheesecake Factory,
who installed 20, 4-foot-by-10-foot solar energy collectors
on the rooftop of its Pleasanton, Calif., location and saves
nearly 60,000 pounds of CO2 produced by the restaurant
per year.
Going forward, sustainable wall coverings, re-used wood
and stone, hardened and processed used plastic, utility
saving applications and low energy lighting will all be the
norm in building sustainable restaurants.
Technology and Artificial Intelligence
Today’s technology plays such an essential part the food and
restaurant industries, it is not possible to report on trends
without its’ inclusion.
Restaurant related technologies have previously included
online ordering, advance ordering, tablet-based table orders,
social media integration, guest-facing technology platforms,
and product menu information. Next phase developments
with blockchain, digital twin, and artificial intelligence will
change consumer interface dramatically over the next ten
years (albeit many can’t exactly say how).
Think about a smart menu driven by artificial intelligence,
whereby a customer’s food order is based on historical
ordering patterns, nutritionally bolstered by the customer’s
body type and medical history, produced by a 3d printer,
priced based on the consumer’s blockchain credit
assessment, paid for by a cryptocurrency, and delivered by an
interactive robot. Not Possible – think again!
Technology and Artificial Intelligence
In 2019 the technologies that will trend most are anticipated as
follows:
Blockchains deployed for tracking within the food chain (as well as
other areas)
Technology in custom nutrition-based diets
Robotic chef kitchens
Drone delivery
Driverless delivery vehicles
Restaurant cryptocurrencies
Google Eyewear with face recognition software
Enhanced intelligence applications with prediction technology
Voice-controlled virtual assistant
Predicting the long-term horizon where the US restaurant industry is
transformed by blockchain and AI is challenging. However, given the
momentous oscillation of automation the possibilities are infinite.
For example, one German company is developing the world’s first
fully-automated, blockchain-powered pizza operation, what would
Dominos do with that?
2019
On-Trend Food
and Drinks to
Watch Out For
1. Ayurvedic food - Indian practice of holistic medicinal remedies
infused with regular daily food
2. Drinking vinegar and vinegar infused drinks
3. Quinoa derivatives eg: chocolate-covered quinoa snacks, pasta
and milk
4. Jackfruit
5. Moringa, a superfood powder and/or oil now available in bars,
snacks and teas
6. Matcha
7. Functional mushrooms
8. Cucumber infused drinks
9. Sparkling coffees and sparkling sap-based water drinks
10.Algae and algae-based products
11.Ancient grains (Sorghum being one of the most popular)
12.Sea Vegetables
13.Healthy Desserts
14.Street Food; still a growth trend, a great example being The
Hungry Trader in Los Angeles, where street food from the silk
routes has been modernized while keeping its heritage and
authenticity.
About the Author,
ROBERT ANCILL
ROBERT ANCILL is the founding partner
and owner of The Next Idea Group,
an International Food and
Restaurant Consulting group
based in Los Angeles.
He is considered one of the most
authoritative voices on restaurant and
food trends, and has consulted on
launching and positioning many new
And existing brands in the USA as well
as emerging and frontier markets.
About The Next Idea
The Award Winning Next Idea
[TNI] is an international Restaurant &
Hospitality Concept development and
management agency. Based in Los
Angeles TNI works across the world,
specializing in concept creation,
development and management,
everything from research, strategy,
brand and product development,
franchising, through to design,
execution, systems and operations,
and marketing.
About The Next Idea
The TNI team has consulted with
some of the world¹s most eminent
Chefs, and upscale restaurant groups,
in addition to working with clients in:
entertainment, casual dining, fast
casual dining, resorts, theme parks
and travel. In each project TNI has
been involved in all areas of the
business, and have delivered
programs and plans that have
targeted the elevation of concept
positioning, product and menu,
operating standards, infrastructure,
and overall quality.
About The Next Idea
Presently, The Next Idea has
concept development projects in:
USA, UK, Dubai and Abu Dhabi
(UAE), Nigeria, Hong Kong,
Kuwait, China, Qatar, Mexico,
Bahrain, Thailand, Philippines Saudi
Arabia, Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
and India.
For Information contact
info@thenextidea.net / (001) 818 887 7714
Franchise Solutions &
Concept Investment
www.tnifranchise.net
Consultancy
www.thenextidea.net
Interiors
www.tnidesign.com
Blog
www.globalrestaurantconsultant.com
About The Next Idea
The Next Idea
Awards
Best End-to-End Hospitality Business
Consultancy (Travel Hospitality Awards)
2017 & 2018
Most Innovative Hospitality Consultancy
Group (USA Today Corporate) 2018
City Beat News 5 Star in Customer
Service (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017,
2018)
Most Innovative Hospitality Consultancy
Group (LUX Hospitality Awards) 2016
Glossary
Research sources for this report include:
The Next Idea ground team
The Next Idea marketing department
The Farmacists at Phood Farmacy
Statistica
Allied Market Research
Bharat Book
Oxford Martin School (Oxford University)
Mintel
Co Bank
The World Resources Institute
Grand View Research
Nielson
Euromonitor
Forbes
Label Insight
Fast Company
National Restaurant Association
Photography and Graphics:
Robert Ancill
Various internet sources
The Next Idea Food and Restaurant Forecast 2019

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The Next Idea Food and Restaurant Forecast 2019

  • 1. RESTAURANT AND FOOD TREND FORECAST FOR 2019 AUTHORED by: Robert Ancill CHAIRMAN & CEO, THE NEXT IDEA RESTAURANT CONSULTANTS
  • 2. The Next Idea (TNI) anticipates 2019 to be a uniquely pivotal year as the restaurant and food terrain adjusts itself towards an increasingly confident, exploratory, and discerning consumer.
  • 3. It is clear to most that the impact on our food eco-system by Earth’s planetary changes are significant; many factors involving farming methods, where food is grown, the deployment of pesticides and fertilizers, livestock feedstuff, and so on, affect the environmental impact of the food we buy and eat. The significant changes in weather patters, population, and geo- politics is now impacting what we eat, and this theme will transcend the coming years.
  • 4. For example; Approximately 86% of world food consumption is generated from rice, maize, sugar, wheat, barley, soy, palm and potato. Across the globe diets are actually becoming increasingly similar, both in the food types, and also the varieties of those food types that are consumed. This results in increasing exposure to shortages in the event of a large scale natural disaster. For example, food shortages in 2007/8 were caused by a yield loss in Australia of less than 1% of global food supply, however the net effect created spikes in food pricing and political unrest in certain parts of the world. As economists tried to make sense of the problem, the one primary metric was obvious – world population growth [Demand] vs shrunken availability [Supply] was out of balance.
  • 5. Combine the world’s macro issues at localized levels and we begin to see shifting and emerging trends in both food production and consumer demand. Talking of the Consumer, what are the 2019 consumer’s expectations? This is of course deeply complex and fluctuates by age, income and demographic, however one theme appears to have emerged since the great recession – consumers want a relationship not a transaction. They covet their chosen brands that leverage situational and behavioral data as the primary foundation of their brand engagement. But it goes further, consumers expect their brand experience to be seamless across all engagement points and when it fails, which is inevitable at some stage, recovery will be based on the quality and speed of service and ability to address whatever the failure may be.
  • 6. When it comes to food and restaurants, consumer expectations have never been higher, with the ability to post their feedback on Trip Advisor, Yelp and Zomato, to name a few, consumers have immense power over brands to ensure they comply with their promise, and in some cases exceed their promise. Indeed consumers have an unprecedented ability to access or experience food and restaurant products and share this information via all social media platforms. The modern 2019 consumer has a set of 6 primary values when it comes to food; summarized as follows: 1. Health Aware 2. Transparency 3. Sustainability 4. Social Consciousness 5. Trust & Honesty 6. Technology integration The above value structure is defining trends and demand, accelerating disruption throughout the food chain, and creating a new environment for food sellers and restaurant operators to acclimate their business models.
  • 7. Health Aware Health continues to be the primary propelling consumer value. When glancing ahead into 2019, expect consumer health and wellness targets to reach new levels. Consumers are increasingly treating their bodies like ecosystems, understanding nutrition valuations and how different foods affect them. They are even customizing their diet based on DNA and Genetics. Food is increasingly viewed as nutritional therapy for all consumer types.
  • 8. Transparency TNI has reported on the change in Consumer behavior since the great recession in 2008/9, whereby demand for honesty and transparency was fueled by perceived brand and corporate deceitfulness. Since then, this value has permeated throughout the food & restaurant world with consumers requiring guarantees on food hygiene, ethics, labelling, and sustainability standards. Traceability from farm to fork, through labelling and general information, is a significant demand by the consumer, and has forced a democratization of both nutritional data and overall ingredient history.
  • 9. Sustainability Sustainability has become a major consumer concern over the past twenty years, but never more than now. After experiencing the effects of global warming in 2018 and hearing major scientific reports coming from the United Nations, consumers are acutely aware of their individual impact on Planet Earth, and what the future might look like should they not act. From the enhanced management of waste reduction, through to renewable packaging in materials and shorter food supply chains, consumers are placing increasing demand on food producers and restaurants to act in the interest of the environment.
  • 10. Social Consciousness Consumers now care; it’s that simple. Consumers want to know what supermarkets are doing with their wasted food, how each restaurant supports the community they serve, and how their dollar will be used to support worthwhile causes. This especially applies to the millennial population who demand socially aware food and restaurant brands, or they shop and eat elsewhere.
  • 11. Trust & Honesty Consumers are increasingly wary of corporate America, whom they believe have no incentive to act in the consumer’s best interest. Consumers are increasingly fact checking the corporations they choose to do business with. Equally, consumers’ brand loyalty is switching from household names to local and small businesses whom they can better relate to. Honesty is not just about businesses being truthful, it’s a devotion to genuineness that the consumer seeks: Brands that talk about their roots, and demonstrate I don’t want perfect, I want Honest
  • 12. Technology Integration Technology within food and food service is not new and the app-centric global society is being serviced well by technology availability. However, technology is becoming increasingly sophisticated and advanced. Artificial Intelligence is being introduced throughout food service and provides predictive technology for restaurant food ordering. Technology runs deep into all forms of food production given the vulnerabilities in farming due to climate change. New blockchain technologies will allow farming to move into warehouses and even underground, through the availability of open source hardware and software platforms for sensor controlled hydroponic and aeroponic agricultural systems. Consumers are welcoming these technologies and availability as it speaks to their interest in sustainability, and in many cases provides something to talk about on social media.
  • 13. Consumer Happiness Scale 2019 Transparancy #information Honesty Local – Global Simplicity Convenience Innovation Sustainability Instagram 😀 🤔 ☹️ Price to Value #quality Trust in Advertising Longevity Experimentation Green matters Slow anything #lies Opaque Apathy Waste Green
  • 14. The market is changing at unprecedented velocity, this is demonstrated by the multiple emerging trends within all markets. Veganism, *Entomophagy, Lab grown meat, 3d food printing, Food being Medicine, CBD and THC infused products, Nut and grain-based milks, Drone and self- driving car delivery, street food innovation, and the regeneration of food waste, represent the major trends that will prevail through 2019 and after. In the main, these trends will circle around a major theme in food trends over the past 20 years; Health! *Entomophagy is the consumption of insects. Trend changes in the Food and Restaurant market
  • 15. Indeed, it is the consumer that will be 2019’s champion for change as, through their combined buying and social media sovereignty, the consumer’s voice will be more powerful than ever. So, this elusive consumer, what do they actually want? Well, naturally not all consumers are made the same; age, ethnicity, income, and overall demographics all share their role in segmentation. With that said, today’s consumers possess one value that they increasingly collectively care about, and that is their health. While it may seem obvious, consumer health is one of the primary drivers in emerging and materialized food trends, and it is igniting a full array of sub-trends that form 2019’s food and restaurant trend roadmap. The Consumer
  • 16. Health Leads Food Decisions Of course, healthy eating is not a new trend, but the rapidity at which consumer eating habits have shifted towards healthier eating represents the difference. Both at home and in restaurants, consumer food choice has migrated with a greater emphasis on ‘clean’ and ‘healthy’ dishes and is metamorphizing the eating out landscape at an extraordinary rate. Historically, ‘healthy eating’ was limited in options and generally considered a less than favorable culinary experience. However today, consumers have a far more informed opinion and choice when it comes to ‘healthy food’ options. This is generally due to the swath of cooking channels along with the exponential increase in digital and social media engagement, and creative chefs who have made health food look enticing and fun.
  • 17. Health Leads Food Decisions Putting this into perspective, the global health and wellness food market was valued at 707.12 billion U.S. dollars in 2016 and projected to increase up to 811.82 trillion U.S. dollars by 2021. Organic food is another example: The U.S. organic food market size is expected to reach 70.4 billion U.S. dollars by 2025 as a result of increasing demand from consumers. Organic food is another example: The U.S. organic food market size is expected to reach USD 70.4 billion by 2025 as a result of increasing demand from consumers. Combined with intensified interest in global flavors, superfood ingredients, and Instagram-ready dishes, retail food ranges and restaurant menus will increase focus on dietary needs and concerns while elevating innovation using foods from the past.
  • 18. PRIMARY 2019 FOOD TREND THEMES As we head into 2019, there are eight primary themes when establishing 2019’s food trends: Veganism Food as Medicine Entomophagy CBD and THC infused products Milk is not Milk Food delivery Regeneration of food waste Technology These themes relate to all future food trends, in some cases at multiple levels, and as such are the foundation to current and future trends.
  • 20. Trend Network Plant-based everything Artisanal Medicinal Healthy Technology Back to Basics yet always Connected! Sustainable
  • 21. Vegan is Growing! Not even ten years ago, vegan cuisine was generally considered fodder for hippies, yet in 2019 it is undoubtedly the prevailing overall culinary trend in the US. The Vegan landscape now includes established restaurant brands; Veggie Grill, Amy’s, Native Foods, Southern California-based Plant Power, and recently re-named Viva Vegan, to name a few. All have all demonstrated the power of this trend and are experiencing above average market growth. However, the carnivore brands are fast jumping on the bandwagon; Carl’s Jr. announced it was launching a burger made with a Beyond Meat [vegan] quarter-pound patty. White Castle now sells its plant based Impossible Sliders in all of its 377 locations, Del Taco has expanded its Beyond Taco trial to over 20 of its locations, and McDonald’s has been introducing a Vegan burger in its international markets and is eyeing the US market to launch in 2019.
  • 22. Vegan is Growing! This trend has been fueled by consumers eating less red meat combined with the discernible health benefits and product innovation. What is interesting is that there is not necessarily a significantly elevated vegan population, instead there is a new consumer breed widely known as a flexitarian. The label ‘flexitarian’ has been applied to the consumer group who purposefully interchanges between eating meat and vegan foods. In order to be familiar; vegan restaurant and food brands are taking traditionally meat-based products, such as burgers, pizza, and tacos, and converting them into a plant-based alternative.
  • 23. Vegan is Growing! Take *Viva Vegan’s menu for example. They offer a Famous Works Burger, a blend of 27 plant-based ingredients, and spaghetti and meatballs, which includes gluten and soy free pasta with bean and grain-based meatballs with a plant- based sauce.
  • 24. Vegan Statistics In the USA there has been a 600% increase in people claiming to be vegans in the last three years. In 2014, 1% of U.S. consumers professed to be vegan in 2014 whereas in 2017, that number rose to 6%. Source: Global Data Google Trends details worldwide increase in the interest in veganism from 2004 to 2018. Seven percent or about 3.5 million people now identify as vegan in Great Britain. The U.S. and U.K. round out the top 2 vegan countries by percentage, India takes the first spot with veganism encompassing 27% of the population. Google Search reports that veganism is now experiencing virtually 3 times more interest than vegetarian and gluten free searches. A study by Oxford Martin School, (part of Oxford University), stated: ‘A global switch to diets that rely less on meat and more on fruit and vegetables could save up to 8 million lives by 2050, reduce greenhouse gas emissions by two thirds, and lead to healthcare- related savings and avoided climate damages of $1.5 trillion (US)’. Technomic reports that 50% of operators are embracing plant-based eating trends when developing new menu items.
  • 25. The Future of Of course, given TNI is a Los Angeles based agency, it would be amiss if we didn’t discuss our Hollywood friends – Ariana Grande, Zac Efron, Gisele, Ellie Goulding, Natalie Portman, Daryl Hannah, Woody Harrelson, and mega star, Beyonce, are all self-declared Vegans. The Future... Veganism will grow exponentially. For example, the *global meat substitutes market is expected to generate in excess of $5bn in revenue, representing compound annual growth (CAG) rate of 8.4% between 2015-2020. ** Vegan Cheese has forecasted global sales of around $4bn by 2024, a CAG of 7.6% from 2016 to 2024. Sources *Allied Market Research and **Bharat Book. Expect vegetable versions of kung pao chicken, charcuterie, cured heirloom carrots, sushi, tacos, and even steak.
  • 26. Food As Medicine We are what we eat – and consumers now know this! The Food as Medicine philosophy aims to manage or even cure chronic illness by changing what people consume. Nielsen reported in 2018 that 39% of American households have someone who suffers from a particular ailment. The US aging population is increasing, chronic diseases will only grow in the coming years. However, rather than relying 100% on prescription and over-the-counter medicines, a growing base is looking at natural remedies that include very precise culinary diets and nutrition plans.
  • 27. Food As Medicine The food as medicine trend derives from consumers taking greater personal responsibility for their own health and wellness. Food production and food service industries have responded favorably by providing healthy and sustainable food that has made the healthier food choice the easiest one. For example, Hormel and Nestle have both announced their intent to develop nutritional products that will help their customers manage any personal ailments. AREEA, a biotechnology business, has produced a ready to drink beverage containing an enzyme that detoxes the body from daily pollution effects. In January 2019, Phood Farmacy, a brand committed to food as medicine launches its first virtual kitchen in North Hollywood, California. Phood Farmacy offers a spectrum of exciting yet nutritionally infused meals in addition to specific medical condition-based meal plans. All meals are made from clean ingredients combined with comprehensive nutritional planning.
  • 28. Food As Medicine “Naturally Functional” is a new buzzword behind the success of many foods now known as “Super Foods” such as blueberries, pomegranate, chia seeds and goji berries, to name a few. This endorses consumers search for foods and ingredients that they perceive as naturally healthy and provide essential health benefits. Food education and mindfulness have become growth trends for 2019, mainly through the accessibility of information, but also through food hubs and online communities such as Food + Tech connect, and the Food Tank. Thus, consumers now understand the nutritional value of natural food ingredients and how each ingredient reacts with themselves specifically; consequently, they are seeking out specific ingredients to assist in their personal wellness and being. The concept of Food as Medicine will permeate throughout the industry as consumers, therapists, and doctors increasingly appreciate the relationship between food intake and wellness. We should expect to see prescriptions of specific diets of foods and recipes that enhance the healing process, elevate immunity, and address specific medical conditions with patients.
  • 29. Food As Medicine Examples of high value foods include: Kelp: Rich in calcium, magnesium, potassium, and iodine – helps keep thyroid levels balanced Shiitake mushrooms: Contains lentinan which may fight cancer and slow tumor growth Moringa: Possesses powerful anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and tissue-protective properties Rooibos tea: Contains antioxidants that can protect against cancer, heart disease and stroke Garlic: Rich in vitamin C, B6 and manganese, supports the heart and reduces blood pressure Ginger: Anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties Basil: Contains eugenol, keeps intestines safe
  • 30. Food As Medicine Many “medicinal” foods such as apple cider vinegar, kefir, and turmeric are now mainstream. This trend is young; many more foods will reach the forefront as consumers seek out natural remedies for conditions like inflammation, fatigue, digestive issues, joint pain, depression and the multitude of other medical conditions that can be supported by a specific mix of foods and natural supplements.
  • 31. Entomophagy, consumption of insects As the planet journeys towards a population of 9 billion people, the food industry is driven to unearth new and sustainable food sources. Insects represent a relatively untapped food-type in the west yet are established in diets or snack culture in other parts of the world. For example, in parts of central Africa, around 50% of protein is derived from insects. During the springtime in Ghana, when food is scarce, Ghanaians rely on termites as their main source of protein. Thailand’s popular Jing Leed is deep-fried crickets with a soy based dipping sauce. Thais also love snacking on grasshoppers, crickets and woodworms. In Mexico, chicatanas, or pan-roasted ants with lime, are as mainstream as tacos. Edible insects contain high quality protein, amino acids and vitamins, and even mass consumption has a small impact environmentally. Companies like Entocube provide technology to farm insects and process them as an ingredient to the food industry and Bugsolutley produces cricket-based pasta. Presently, crickets are the most common insect type being used in the US. Mainly for the production of cricket flour and protein products. However other insect types are also expected to become available, including caterpillars, different beetle species, and larvae. Even termites are under experimentation.
  • 32. Entomophagy, consumption of insects In the US, Meat Maniac, a Texas based company, provides a broad range of insect based snacks, such as: hot Mealworms, Emperor Scorpions and Earthworm Jerky. The entomophagy trend is still in its infancy in the west, however it will gain traction and expect to see this sector exceed revenues of $1bn by 2025.
  • 33. TBC and THC infused Products Cannabis is still illegal at the federal level, and due to its classification as a Schedule 1 drug the amount of research that can be conducted in this sector is limited. However, as cannabis is legalized state by state, the overall industry continues to grow at a profligate rate. This has resulted in the augmentation of cannabis-based edibles, oils, and beverages. Given the presently unclear federal position on the future legalization of Cannabis, national statistics are unclear, nevertheless we only have to look at the market and product availability to identify the escalating trends in cannabis and cannabis infused products. There is now a swath of CBD infused confectionary, with brands like Camino and Dr Norm. Mixed CBD and THC infused products include: brownies (of course!), mints, cookies, cakes and chocolate bars.
  • 34. TBC and THC infused Products The cannabis infused beverage sector is also anticipated to grow in 2019. Yet beverage market share is predicted to be less impressive until 2020 or 2021. By 2022 this market is estimated to be a $600 million business as larger manufactures tweak and launch their products. 2019 will also experience a new wave of cannabis cafes and lounges in various states. Notably in 2018, West Hollywood approved a range of cannabis cafes and consumption lounges to open in 2019. The City spent 7 months screening over 300 applicants for highly-coveted cannabis licenses, setting a new bar in cannabis recreation and starting a new wave in cannabis tourism. In short, Cannabis growth will go higher and higher in 2019! Chroma – a winner of the West Hollywood Cannabis lounge license
  • 35. The Changing Face of Dairy Plant-based milk alternatives revenues have grown by 61% over the past five years, with *15 – 25% growth expected by 2022. In fact, the alternative milk industry is already around $2bn in annual revenue. *Source: CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Almond milk (64 percent market share), soy (13 percent market share), and coconut (12 percent market share), represent the leaders in the sector. However new variations are generating considerable interest. Pecan, quinoa, cashew, hazelnut, sunflower seed, and rice milks are all gaining traction in this young but high growth market. In addition, there are non-dairy milks made from hemp, peas, bananas, cassava, oats and potatoes, with others under development also.
  • 36. The Changing Face of Dairy The fuel behind this trend is again Health, with *1 in 5 Americans citing health reasons to explain their switch from regular to plant-based milk. Interestingly, Vegans and Vegetarians account for only 15% of this market, with the primary consumer being flexitarians or **lessitarians. *Source: Mintel ** Lessitarian is a consumer who has cut back on their consumption of animal-based foods and beverages Its not just the milk industry that is transforming; yogurt made with almonds, coconut and cashews have become prominent in health food and mainstream grocery stores. Brands such as The Coconut Cult, Ripple and Coco Rico are all significant brands in this arena. Other traditionally dairy products such as ice cream and cheese, have non – dairy alternatives, chauffeuring the overall Dairy Alternative Market to around *$35bn by 2024. *Grand View Research
  • 37. Food delivery speeds forward The recent convergence between food, technology and portability has been dramatic and literally changed the restaurant industry topography. In 2019, the average revenue per user (ARPU) in the restaurant-to-consumer delivery segment is estimated at *$232.05, with a market volume of *$16.16bn. *Statistica Convenience was always thought to be the driver behind the food delivery phenomenon, however there are multiple reasons for this monumental market shift including: variety, saves time, ability to order at any time, and visibility of options, all of which are significant. The worldwide gross revenue of US$82.7 billion in 2018 is expected to increase to US$137.6 billion by 2023. Since 2014, online ordering and delivery has grown 300% faster than dine-in-traffic. In fact, most casual dining and fast casual brands have seen a decline in their dine-in numbers as groups like Grub Hub, Postmates, Uber Eats, and Doordash, basically eat into this market and change consumer eating out behavior.
  • 38. Food delivery speeds forward Generational consumer habits have helped fuel the delivery trend, however while 37% of online food delivery consumers are between 25 to 34 years of age, 26% are between 35 to 44 and 11% are 45 to 54. Therefore, demand is spreading across all age groups. Higher income consumers are the largest user group representing 43.1% of the market vs 25.9% for lower income buyers. The food delivery sector will grow through consumer demand. However, advances in delivery technology will be a major growth factor. For Example, drone delivery and driverless delivery vehicles are in test by several delivery operators, and even the convenience of Alexa will have an impact: a leading c- store brand, Sheetz, announced that its “made to order foods” from all 564 stores can be ordered on Alexa. This sector will ultimately change the operational structure of a restaurant, and TNI advises restaurants to get on board or be left behind.
  • 39. Food delivery – The facts!
  • 40. Food waste has become a hot topic in restaurants and viewed as a critical economic and social concern in 2019 by many consumers. Indeed, whereas food waste was historically a profitability issue, it has now become a matter of principal. Chipotle, for example, announced its goal to divert 50% of its restaurant’s waste from landfills by 2020, through a program of operational improvements, leftover food donations, and general food sustainability training. Regeneration of Food Waste
  • 41. Regeneration of Food Waste However, it is the local level that is leading the way. Independent restaurants are using left over food waste for compost, and innovation is abound: Silo restaurant converts its whey from cheese-making into a sauce for potatoes and turns leftover bread crusts into miso soup, Phood Farmacy uses all scraps from vegetable preparation for vegetable stock and its discarded chilli seeds into chili powder. Viva Vegan plans to dehydrate and convert its discarded juice pulp into crackers and energy bars. Restaurants are increasingly eco-conscious in order to engage customers, save money and comply with tightening diversion regulations. Composting, converting waste into ingredients, donating leftovers, and swapping single-use items for reusable ones are all signals that food waste no longer needs to be wasted.
  • 42. Sustainability While it is hard to find a news outlet today that doesn’t discuss Sustainability, this restaurant trend is still in its infancy. At a general level, restaurants today, (especially brands), are very environmentally unfriendly through the high consumption of power and water, packaging, and waste output. The World Resources Institute reported ‘approximately one-third of all food produced in the world intended for human consumption is lost or wasted. This inefficiency equates to a loss of $940 billion per year and contributes to 8% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions’
  • 43. Sustainability The National Restaurant Association’s State of Restaurant Sustainability 2018 report, states that ‘food waste reduction has become one of the top sustainability issues for restaurants. About half of all restaurants track the food waste they generate, while more than one in 10 compost their food waste, the report found’. However, this is just the tip; some restaurants have moved from oil fried products to air fried products thus eradicating the need for oil and the damage used oil creates in the environment, while others have introduced sustainable fish programs. Packaging, a huge environmental challenge, has seen prodigious changes in the past 5 years. The switch to Hemp, sugarcane and bamboo- based packaging, has resulted in restaurants removing over 47,000 kg of PET plastics from packaging life cycle per year.
  • 44. Sustainability TNI Design, a leading restaurant design firm has developed a program that uses hemp-based materials in around 45% of its restaurant finish materials, and reclaimed wood for its furniture recommendations. Lighting is only LED, and research into capital affordable solar power for restaurants has been underway with their new recommended program expected to be launched in 2020. Another example is The Cheesecake Factory, who installed 20, 4-foot-by-10-foot solar energy collectors on the rooftop of its Pleasanton, Calif., location and saves nearly 60,000 pounds of CO2 produced by the restaurant per year. Going forward, sustainable wall coverings, re-used wood and stone, hardened and processed used plastic, utility saving applications and low energy lighting will all be the norm in building sustainable restaurants.
  • 45. Technology and Artificial Intelligence Today’s technology plays such an essential part the food and restaurant industries, it is not possible to report on trends without its’ inclusion. Restaurant related technologies have previously included online ordering, advance ordering, tablet-based table orders, social media integration, guest-facing technology platforms, and product menu information. Next phase developments with blockchain, digital twin, and artificial intelligence will change consumer interface dramatically over the next ten years (albeit many can’t exactly say how). Think about a smart menu driven by artificial intelligence, whereby a customer’s food order is based on historical ordering patterns, nutritionally bolstered by the customer’s body type and medical history, produced by a 3d printer, priced based on the consumer’s blockchain credit assessment, paid for by a cryptocurrency, and delivered by an interactive robot. Not Possible – think again!
  • 46. Technology and Artificial Intelligence In 2019 the technologies that will trend most are anticipated as follows: Blockchains deployed for tracking within the food chain (as well as other areas) Technology in custom nutrition-based diets Robotic chef kitchens Drone delivery Driverless delivery vehicles Restaurant cryptocurrencies Google Eyewear with face recognition software Enhanced intelligence applications with prediction technology Voice-controlled virtual assistant Predicting the long-term horizon where the US restaurant industry is transformed by blockchain and AI is challenging. However, given the momentous oscillation of automation the possibilities are infinite. For example, one German company is developing the world’s first fully-automated, blockchain-powered pizza operation, what would Dominos do with that?
  • 47. 2019 On-Trend Food and Drinks to Watch Out For 1. Ayurvedic food - Indian practice of holistic medicinal remedies infused with regular daily food 2. Drinking vinegar and vinegar infused drinks 3. Quinoa derivatives eg: chocolate-covered quinoa snacks, pasta and milk 4. Jackfruit 5. Moringa, a superfood powder and/or oil now available in bars, snacks and teas 6. Matcha 7. Functional mushrooms 8. Cucumber infused drinks 9. Sparkling coffees and sparkling sap-based water drinks 10.Algae and algae-based products 11.Ancient grains (Sorghum being one of the most popular) 12.Sea Vegetables 13.Healthy Desserts 14.Street Food; still a growth trend, a great example being The Hungry Trader in Los Angeles, where street food from the silk routes has been modernized while keeping its heritage and authenticity.
  • 48. About the Author, ROBERT ANCILL ROBERT ANCILL is the founding partner and owner of The Next Idea Group, an International Food and Restaurant Consulting group based in Los Angeles. He is considered one of the most authoritative voices on restaurant and food trends, and has consulted on launching and positioning many new And existing brands in the USA as well as emerging and frontier markets.
  • 49. About The Next Idea The Award Winning Next Idea [TNI] is an international Restaurant & Hospitality Concept development and management agency. Based in Los Angeles TNI works across the world, specializing in concept creation, development and management, everything from research, strategy, brand and product development, franchising, through to design, execution, systems and operations, and marketing.
  • 50. About The Next Idea The TNI team has consulted with some of the world¹s most eminent Chefs, and upscale restaurant groups, in addition to working with clients in: entertainment, casual dining, fast casual dining, resorts, theme parks and travel. In each project TNI has been involved in all areas of the business, and have delivered programs and plans that have targeted the elevation of concept positioning, product and menu, operating standards, infrastructure, and overall quality.
  • 51. About The Next Idea Presently, The Next Idea has concept development projects in: USA, UK, Dubai and Abu Dhabi (UAE), Nigeria, Hong Kong, Kuwait, China, Qatar, Mexico, Bahrain, Thailand, Philippines Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and India.
  • 52. For Information contact info@thenextidea.net / (001) 818 887 7714 Franchise Solutions & Concept Investment www.tnifranchise.net Consultancy www.thenextidea.net Interiors www.tnidesign.com Blog www.globalrestaurantconsultant.com About The Next Idea
  • 53. The Next Idea Awards Best End-to-End Hospitality Business Consultancy (Travel Hospitality Awards) 2017 & 2018 Most Innovative Hospitality Consultancy Group (USA Today Corporate) 2018 City Beat News 5 Star in Customer Service (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018) Most Innovative Hospitality Consultancy Group (LUX Hospitality Awards) 2016
  • 54. Glossary Research sources for this report include: The Next Idea ground team The Next Idea marketing department The Farmacists at Phood Farmacy Statistica Allied Market Research Bharat Book Oxford Martin School (Oxford University) Mintel Co Bank The World Resources Institute Grand View Research Nielson Euromonitor Forbes Label Insight Fast Company National Restaurant Association Photography and Graphics: Robert Ancill Various internet sources

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